Brexit - into the unknown

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silmcoach
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Brexit - into the unknown

Post by silmcoach »

Whether to stay in the EU or leave, that is the question. It's a big decision because effectively we can only look into a crystal ball and best guess what will be the outcome of either scenario. When the Scots decided on independence no one forecast the price of oil would collapse within a year blowing all independence economic forecasts out of the water. The economy is just one factor, we also have to consider other major factors such as sovereignty, security, immigration, all of which impact upon each other. We really are dealing with a phenomenal level of complexity that makes predicting the outcome of an in or out decision impossible. It is likely that many people will make a decision based upon a gut feeling, perhaps on the day, influenced by the strength of the various arguments put forward by either side that they have taken on board unconsciously.

Given the unpredictability of any future outcome it's possible that resistance to change may influence a lot of people's final decision, thinking, stick with what you know. It's also likely that voters will focus on one or two factors that have already directly impacted on them, such as the perceived impact of immigration on access to services, housing, jobs etc. It is more difficult to assess, or take into account, whether immigration has had a positive effect on boosting the economy.

It will be an interesting couple of months. What do you think?
silmcoach
Greatest wealth - happy heart, peace of mind :D

silmcoach
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Re: Brexit - How does a nation decide?

Post by silmcoach »

Update 26/04/16

President Obama's strong vocal support for the UK remaining in the EU has certainly had an impact on the currency market with the UK pound increasing almost 2% in value against the Euro. He argues that not only trade wise, but greater security and a more powerful political voice on the world stage, are strong reasons for remaining in the EU. Brexit campaigners have countered, citing uncontrolled immigration fears as a strong reason for exiting the EU. Bookmakers' odds suggest 'Remain' is the strong favourite.
silmcoach
Greatest wealth - happy heart, peace of mind :D

silmcoach
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Re: Brexit - How does a nation decide?

Post by silmcoach »

Update Friday 13 May

Well, with Mark Carney (Governor of the Bank of England) yesterday and Christine Lagarde (International Monetary Fund) today, both weighing in with warnings of serious negative financial consequences of a Brexit, it seems unlikely that those on the fence will decide to jump ship (exit the EU).

I think it will come down to 'resistance to change' - there are few strong arguments on the exit side - certainly not enough to create any momentum for change.
silmcoach
Greatest wealth - happy heart, peace of mind :D

tryitout
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Re: Brexit - How does a nation decide?

Post by tryitout »

Seems neck & neck. Saw the Cameron/Farage question & answer program on ITV last night (Tues 7 June). Thought it was an interesting technique of Nigel Farage, seemed to turn his back on the questioner when he had given as much of an answer as he wanted to.

silmcoach
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Re: Brexit - How does a nation decide?

Post by silmcoach »

Well, the vote is Leave - Brexit wins - resistance to change appears to have been overtaken by the disillusionment of many who have been affected by hardship and a feeing of having been left behind through the last seven years of austerity, immigration, and greater difficulty in accessing pubic services.

As predicted the financial markets have responded negatively with £200Bn wiped of the value of UK stocks - but I don't think the Leave voters were as concerned about that as they were annoyed about their personal situation.

Now the business of constructing a whole new arbitrary reality for the UK and Europe begins. How that ripples out throughout the World will be something to watch - complexity in all its wonderful randomness and unpredictability.
silmcoach
Greatest wealth - happy heart, peace of mind :D

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