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Re: Turmoil in Financial Markets: Ouch!

Posted: Sat Oct 19, 2019 10:02 am
by silmcoach
End of the week and my gain is down 33.75%. I definitely should have sold on the crest of the wave. The worry is, the fall may have further to go, given Trumps more erratic behaviour. His only concern now is to get re-elected. The more his actions generate publicity the better for him, but the Markets fear what's next.

Saturday 19th October 4 p.m.
The Brexit saga continues -- and so will uncertainty in the minds of investors. I'm not expecting a rally anytime soon.

Re: Turmoil in Financial Markets: When to sell?

Posted: Tue Nov 05, 2019 3:14 am
by silmcoach
Well there has been a bounce back, S&P 500 peaked, and all the markets are in positive territory. With the Fed cutting the interest rate, job creation higher than expected, and upbeat news from the US/China trade talks, investor sentiment turned positive, despite continuing forecasts of "inevitable" recession.

I still think its a case of there being nowhere else for investors to put their money, it's either equities or bonds. With uncertainty over the long term global economy investor confidence will inevitably wax and wain on good or bad news on any front. Just got to try and stay ahead of the curve.

I'm riding the current wave ready to bail out and take the profit, timings the thing though, it's all in the timing!

Re: Turmoil in Financial Markets: sold S&P 500 funds

Posted: Fri Nov 08, 2019 10:02 am
by silmcoach
Decided to sell my two S&P 500 trackers. They weren't tracking (keeping up with the index) particularly well, and given that I'd bought in at a relatively high point, thought it as well to sell whilst in small profit. No dividend imminent, so nothing lost and I can always buy back when they fall again.

I still believe it is in China's interest to manipulate the US markets. Announcing significant progress in the US-China trade talks first, only for the US to respond, denying or moderating the claim, dashes hopes of an early end to the trade war and raises fears for the global economy again. The more so will hurt Trump's chances of re-election and for a new administration to take a different stance on trade with China.
China had been pressing the US to remove tariffs on its goods as part of any deal.
A spokesman for its Commerce Ministry said the two sides had agreed to cancel the tariffs "in stages" as the agreement develops.
On Thursday, Reuters and Bloomberg reported that a US trade official had confirmed that some tariffs would be lifted, should a deal be reached.
But US negotiators did not publicly endorse the report and Reuters later reported that the plan faces "fierce" internal opposition.
Stock markets gained on the reports, seeing them as a sign that a deal is getting closer.


BBC Business News, 'Potential US-China trade deal could remove tariffs', https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50340037, accessed 8/11/19
So, it was record highs yesterday for the US Indices, all based upon the positive expectations of a partial agreement on the lifting of tariffs. However, UK and Europe falling this morning already - how quickly positive sentiment wanes!

I was intending to bank some profits, but the upturn has not seen prices match the highs of a month ago. So will sit tight for the mo. I am 43% in cash, so I can buy in at the end of year fall. (I know I am being overconfident, perhaps arrogant in my prediction, but it will be at my expense, and anyway, I will have the cash available to buy in any dip.)

It will be interesting to see how the US indices perform later today. I wonder just how persistent the expectations of a positive outcome to trade negotiations will prove to be. Is it a case of wishful thinking?

Re: Turmoil in Financial Markets: part-sell winning funds

Posted: Sat Nov 09, 2019 11:17 am
by silmcoach
Well, going against Khaneman's theory, I have decided to sell part of my holding in three winning funds that I believe have peaked, given my prediction that stocks will fall towards year end. I am just holding on to a hundred pounds in each so they stay on the board.

It's a gamble, whether stocks will rise or fall on Monday, before the valuation points, is any ones guess. I'm expecting a slight easing down from the peak, I just hope there's not too much of a fall! But hey, that won't actually be a loss, only less profit. At least I will have banked some profit hopefully to buy back in December/January at a discount price. We shall see.

Again, just testing theory. This time, contrary to Kahneman's strategy of "sell losers, hold on to winners".

Re: Turmoil in Financial Markets: Oh dear

Posted: Wed Nov 13, 2019 7:02 am
by silmcoach
Monday 7 a.m. Decided to part sell another global fund in good profit, and a UK tracker showing a small profit (3.5%). But by the midday valuation point it had lost 1% on the day, only to rise back up by close. Eeh, it's a pesky business, deciding whether to buy or sell based upon a best guess for the next day fund price.

So the following day (Tuesday) stocks rose! Think the lesson learned is to not place orders over the weekend as less chance of following a gradual price trend. Monday opening, the computers kicked in, hence the sudden rise. It may not continue today though, Asia's down over night.

Although it takes a lot of effort following the markets, this is a change in strategy (selling winners at near peak in anticipation of an end of year dip), so patience is required to test it out.

Now 3pm, and all the markets are falling, dizzy or what.

Re: Turmoil in Financial Markets: China pessimistic

Posted: Mon Nov 18, 2019 5:34 pm
by silmcoach
Monday, 5:30 p.m.

So last week the US indices achieved record highs following the optimistic comment by a US trade official that a partial deal was likely to be struck in the US-China trade negotiations. Then today:
After hitting record highs on Friday, stocks on Wall Street started the day slightly lower.
The Dow Jones fell 11.67 points to 27,993.22, the S&P 500 dropped 2.55 points to 3,117.91, while the Nasdaq Composite slipped 11.66 points to 8,529.16.
The falls followed a report on CNBC said China was "pessimistic" over the chances of a trade deal with the US.


BBC Business News, 'US stocks slip from record highs', https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/clyey ... al-average, accessed 18/11/19
The game continues, I stand by my prediction of a steady fall to year end, see last weeks post.

The prices (averaged) of the winning funds I sold last week did not rise above the amount received, so I have not lost by selling (so far). It would take considerable effort to research the investment portfolio of each fund to understand why some were winners and others losers, and I haven't time to do that now.

Re: Turmoil in Financial Markets: the beginning of a new Cold War?

Posted: Thu Nov 21, 2019 9:41 am
by silmcoach
Thursday morning and following Asian market falls overnight the European markets have fallen on opening. Reason? Is this the begging of a Cold War between China and the West?
(Sharecast News) - London stocks fell into the red on Wednesday as concerns about trade relations between the US and China dented the mood ...

... sentiment took a knock after US President Donald Trump said at a cabinet meeting on Tuesday evening that he would raise tariffs on China "even higher" if a trade deal between the two is not agreed.

The US Senate's passing of a bill overnight aimed at protecting human rights in Hong Kong added to tensions. The Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act will now go to the House of Representatives for approval. If signed into law, the bill will demand sanctions on Chinese and Hong Kong officials identified by the US as carrying out alleged human rights abuses.

China has condemned the bill and called on the White House to block it.

Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said: "This bill neglects facts and the truth. It applies double standards and it is overt meddling in Hong Kong's affairs and China's internal affairs. This is a serious violation of the international law and fundamental norms regulating international relations. China condemns this and speaks out against this decisively."

He added that China "will be forced to take resolute countermeasure for protectings its national sovereignty"
.

London close: Stocks fall amid concerns around US-China trade talks, Daily market update email, Hargreaves Lansdowne. Wed 20 November 2019 17:34
It would appear the Trade War is now spilling over, or perhaps moving toward an ideological war. Western Democracy and Capitalism versus Communist Authoritarian verging on State Capitalism.

Re: Turmoil in Financial Markets: here we go again

Posted: Fri Nov 22, 2019 11:50 am
by silmcoach
So later on Thursday UK stocks steadied and jumped this morning due to a positive announcement from China on the trade war negotiations:
London's FTSE 100 has jumped almost 1%, recouping nearly all its losses from the past two days when uncertainty surrounding a US-China trade deal had spurred selling.

The surge was led by trade-sensitive shares, including HSBC, oil stocks and miners, after China attempted to allay fears by saying it would strive to reach a "phase one" deal with the US - although the US has said this may not happen before more tariffs kick in
.

BBC Business News, 'FTSE jumps as US-China trade fears ease', https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/c9qdqqkgz27t/ftse-100, accessed 22/11/19
I still think China's strategy is to continually build up, then dash hopes of an agreement. Trump claims credit when stocks rise, so when they fall it's his fault. When it comes to re-election, and many think it's all about the economy, then his chances of re-election may be reduced. China may hope he isn't re-elected and that a new administration will be less hardball in trade negotiations.

Based upon this assumption it is likely there will be another announcement of a failure to reach an agreement, and stocks will fall again in the next week or two, or more toward year end as more positive and negative announcements are made and sentiment wears thin.

Re: Turmoil in Financial Markets: egg on face?

Posted: Tue Nov 26, 2019 9:32 am
by silmcoach
Yesterday I sold the last two of my "winners" (Lindsell Train Global and UK). Given the significant rise in the markets across the board later in the day, my prediction of a significant fall in the markets toward year-end maybe wrong. Kahneman's strategy of holding on to winners may prove to right in this case.

I'm hanging on to the profit I've made now by realising the cash, rather than gamble that my funds will show a greater profit in the near future. This is exactly what Kahneman argues is the case. Humans are adverse to loss and would rather hang on to a certain profit rather than risk it, gambling that stocks will continue to rise and increase the profit. (Of course, given my age, I can only think relatively short-term)

However, we are only in the third week of November, and the fall last year bottomed out on 24th December, when I bought my best winners of 2019. I am pleased to have turned paper profit into cash, and on a maximum investment of £2,900 throughout the year I will have made to date £314 (10.8%) whilst maintaining a nominal holding in all my "winners" (£1,350, £500 of which is in a bond fund paying 4.43% less 0.83% charges). So the cash dividends from all more than cover charges and continue to provide an income well exceeding any savings account or ISA interest rate.

So, let's wait and see what happens through December.

Re: Turmoil in Financial Markets: game goes on

Posted: Wed Nov 27, 2019 9:09 am
by silmcoach
Monitoring reports on US-China trade negotiation:
Sharecast News) - London stocks were modestly higher on Tuesday as sterling lost ground, with signs of progress in Sino-US trade relations failing to provide much of a boost.
More broadly, trade relations remained in focus after China's Commerce Ministry said earlier that Liu He, China's top negotiator on trade, had spoken to US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin over the phone and both sides had "reached consensus" on how to resolve a number of issues.

Spreadex analyst Connor Campbell said the post-discussion statement was "a tad too vague" to prompt a significant reaction in markets, "at least, not after Monday's gains"


Hargreaves Lansdowne Evening Update, London close: Stocks edge higher as investors monitor election polls, Tue 26 November 2019 17:24

Re: Turmoil in Financial Markets: never mind China

Posted: Mon Dec 02, 2019 4:45 pm
by silmcoach
Well, China doesn't need a strategy, surely Trump is playing into their hands? He spooked the Markets today with new steel tariffs for Argentina and Brazil. This was followed by the release of US manufacturing data which has fallen for the fourth month in a row.

In Europe all the Markets are around 2% down on the day, perhaps wondering if they are next to be hit with tariffs ... hmm ... think this is going to be an interesting week.

Re: Turmoil in Financial Markets: ehh!

Posted: Tue Dec 03, 2019 5:19 pm
by silmcoach
Trump announced today that an agreement in the US-China trade talks may not be reached until after the election (in US, October 2020).

... can't believe it ... suggests he is totally confident on being re-elected ... markets bombed, taking Trump at his word.

Re: Turmoil in Financial Markets: all change!

Posted: Thu Dec 05, 2019 9:08 am
by silmcoach
What a difference a day makes!

(Sharecast news)
Sentiment was boosted by a report suggesting that the United States and China were moving closer to agreeing a first phase trade deal, even as tensions over Hong Kong and Xinjiang escalated.

Bloomberg cited people familiar with the trade discussions, claiming that the two were edging closer to an agreement on the amount of tariffs that would be rolled back in a phase one deal,
[before Dec 15th].

The sources told Bloomberg that US president Donald Trump's comments at a NATO meeting in London on Tuesday, where he downplayed the urgency of a deal, should not be taken to mean talks were stalling.
Evermore convinced that the Stock Market is moved more by sentiment than economic fundamentals. Always looking forward, some take a negative view, some positive, otherwise there would be no sellers or buyers, which is the way the market works. Kahneman questions why there are opposing views, optimistic versus pesimistic [see Choices].