Leadership: Brexit, Cameron, May, next?

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silmcoach
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Leadership: Brexit, Cameron, May, next?

Post by silmcoach »

Now that the Brexit stalemate has resulted in Parliament taking control of the House of Commons, the role and impact of leaders is highlighted. The motives and strategies of individual leaders really do demonstrate the 'Butterfly Effect', how a single event (decision) can ripple out to dramatically shape and change the direction and momentum of the arbitrary World.

Brexit began with increasing concern over the direction and evolution of the EU. What started out as a free trade "club" was seen to be moving towards a European State in which all those things associated with the sovereignty of independent nations were gradually being eroded almost by stealth.

To placate dissent within the Tory party Cameron decided on a referendum for the nation to decide if the UK should remain in the EU or leave. Given the half-hearted effort of the remain side it is evident that they didn't think for one minute that the leave side would actually win.

It was also clear that the leave side didn't expect to win either. The behaviour of Johnson, (who appeared to be using the referendum as a platform for his own leadership aspirations) was unbelievably sheepish after the result was announced. There was no celebration as he and his fellow protagonists melted into the background and May came to prominence.

Again, to overcome dissent within her own party, and spectacularly misjudging the mood of a majority of the people, May called a snap election expecting to increase her majority, but in fact reducing it such that she would always be at the mercy of a small group of MPs with their own significant agenda. Hence the current impasse in the House and failed government.

It will be interesting to see where consensus politics leads us. Just a shame that strategy was not employed in the first place - but hey ho - that's another question. Do complex systems always require fulcrum points around which the entire system hinge and change direction?
silmcoach
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silmcoach
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Re: Leadership: Brexit, Cameron, Johnson, May - The people speak again

Post by silmcoach »

Well, now I can answer my own question. The attempt at consensus politics has got us absolutely no closer toward Brexit. The two main parties failed miserably in their half-hearted attempt.

The results of the European Elections make it clear that the voting public is dissatisfied with both the Conservative and Labour Party's efforts to achieve Brexit. There is now to be a Leadership contest to appoint a new leader of the Conservative Party to replace Mrs May. Will this change make any difference?

The parties cannot agree, neither do members within the different parties agree on the deal negotiated by Mrs May. The EU will not renegotiate the deal, so it's stalemate all round. Is it time to accept the UK will leave the EU without a deal at the end of October?

A change in leader will not solve the problem of deadlock in the House of Commons. The only possibility is that the change in members and leaders of the EU will allow for a renegotiation of the deal. But in the meantime the UK should be seen to be preparing in earnest to leave the EU at the end of October without a deal.

Let's hope the new leader of the Conservative Party will have the necessary resolve to achieve this end so that we as one Nation can move on.
silmcoach
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silmcoach
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Re: Leadership: it's Boris

Post by silmcoach »

Well, our new PM is Boris Johnson. We've heard some blustery rhetoric, he's going to get the EU to accept our demands. The EU quickly replied "Oh no we're not" - reminds me of the Christmas Pantomime.

It's "No-Deal" then, out by the 31st October as promised by Boris. Place your bets!
silmcoach
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silmcoach
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Re: Leadership: As Boris plays Chicken, Trump...

Post by silmcoach »

Well, Trump throwing his toys out of the pram because Denmark won't sell Greenland to the U.S. is a worrying insight.

I have had personal experience of someone who believes that he is absolutely right in everything that he does without a moment of self-doubt.

The egocentricity of such personalities, who really do believe that the world revolves around them, without a care for the consequences their actions may have for others, is unbelievable. And the amazing thing is that they really do believe that they are magnanimous and everyone should be so grateful for all the wonderful things they do for others; totally delusional.

I sincerely hope that President Trump is not such a character and that he is genuinely there to serve the people.
silmcoach
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silmcoach
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Re: Leadership: Brexit, Cameron, May, next? Is Boris, edging more toward scary?

Post by silmcoach »

Boris has come back fighting. Has he got himself in a hole such that the only way out is to fight it out, and not pull the punches? Is it personal, or does he really believe that Brexit, deal or no deal is the best thing for the UK? Is he determined to save face, or genuinely wanting to "honour" the majority vote of the referendum to leave?

The majority of the people voted leave, the majority in Parliament want to remain, but refuse to ask the people if they still want to leave. Boris says that he will get a deal, but is prepared to leave without a deal.

With Parliament in limbo and no prospect of an election or second referendum the only thing factor weighing in on this chaos is the clock. Boris says he will not ask for an extension, Parliament says that if he doesn't then he will be breaking the law. Does he care?

The countdown to the 31st can't be stopped, that day will come. In the end, will it be the EU, staring recession in the face, that tries to achieve a deal?
silmcoach
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silmcoach
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Re: Brexit, Crunch time!

Post by silmcoach »

Well, Boris has certainly proven himself a leader. The EU said a new deal could not be negotiated. Boris got the EU to negotiate a new deal. The EU said the Backstop would never be removed. He has managed to reach agreement with the EU to remove the Backstop.

All that's left is to lead the country out of the EU, with Parliament's consent, on the 31st October. Will it be be three in a row? Or will his leadership skills suffer a serious defeat in this crucial week?

In the words of an infamous satirical TV program from the 1960s, when we look back on 'That was the week that was' I wonder what the 'was' will be?
silmcoach
Greatest wealth - happy heart, peace of mind :D

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